When oh when can I travel again?

When, Oh when can I travel again?  We hear this question a lot.   And yesterday we were talking with some fellow travel agents and the question came up once again.  Here's some of things we discussed.

No matter the weather, the welcome is always warm in Germany.

Vaccines

One key variable is when will a broad swath of people get vaccinated.  There's a lot here.  First, will there be sufficient vaccines available on a timely fashion?  The US currently (Dec 2020) doesn't have enough under contract for every citizen.  Still we think this will ultimately get resolved.  Another question is how many people will actually get the vaccine because until 60 - 70% of us do, the virus will continue to propagate and will be a threat to public health. Third, how long will the vaccine offer protection?  We don't really know this because it's all so new.  So lots of questions and only time will give us answers.

Will it be the same experience?

So maybe you'll be able to travel but will it be the same experience?  Maybe early on, you'll be required to wear masks on all excursions (not to mention airplanes and airports).  Maybe social distance requirements will prohibit eating with others not in your stateroom.  Likely, shared experiences like the buffet will be gone.  Or large scale entertainment venues will have to drastically change logistics.  Is this the experience you even want?

Wine tasting in France - how will this be affected by COVID 19 protocols?

And what of the countries we visit?

And what about where we visit.  Will they even allow Americans to visit?  Currently Europe does not allow Americans to visit because of our high infection rates.  Of course the US is not the only country with problems;  many other countries continue to have outbreaks and may or may not get vaccines distributed quickly.  So we may not even want to visit, given CDC or State department warnings or restrictions.

Swimming with sea tortoise in Galapagos.

OK fine....but what's the best guess?

So sure there's lots of uncertainty.  But we can surely make some educated guesses.  One scenario is that in the US, vaccinations are mostly rolled out by April or May.  That means it may be safe to travel summer of 2021.  The experience perhaps wont' be the same as there will be some level of restrictions (masks or social distancing) for a while.  Perhaps by Fall of 2021, we'll see a more normal travel experience.

Next up....

The fact is people are starting to book late 2021 and 2022 trips.  Bookings are up, and people are warming up to the idea that they will feel safe traveling again.  Last week was actually a busy one for me in terms of new bookings.....something I haven't seen in 9 months.  Suppliers will slowly ramp up operations, under revised procedures.  But soon, you'll be able to travel again.  We think and hope at least!  Give us call to discuss your thoughts and concerns.   The insurance industry is changing and supplier terms and conditions have changed as well.

More reading:

• What's the Status of Ocean cruising?
• How things will change
• What are tour operators seeing?